Know Sure Thing
TrendIntermediate
Martin Pring's Know Sure Thing sums four rates of change, each smoothed and given a weight, with the longest rate weighted most. The point is a momentum curve that looks at several horizons at once instead of a single MACD length. A signal line is a moving average of that sum. Crosses of the signal line are the usual trigger.
Not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Backtests and historical studies are not guarantees, and a rule that worked in one sample can fail in the next. Trading can lose money. Links are for education, not endorsements. Do your own research.
- Rules
- Pring's classic monthly rates of change are 10, 13, 15, and 20, smoothed and weighted. Daily versions exist but are not the original. Go long when KST crosses above its signal line and exit when it crosses back, preferably in the direction of a longer price trend. Use it as a swing filter, not as a target.
- Where AI fits
- AI can code the four-horizon sum and compare it with a single rate of change under the same holding rule. If the two are almost the same, the extra terms are not earning their complexity. Keep monthly and daily versions in separate tests so a daily grid search cannot claim the monthly result.
- Markets
- Equity indexes and sector ETFs. Broad series fit a long momentum sum better than thin stocks.
- Timeframes
- Weekly to monthly. Daily KST is a different parameter set.
- Risks
- Four horizons create many ways to fit the past. The curve lags turns by design. In a trading range the signal line is crossed repeatedly. Treating KST and MACD as two votes double-counts one momentum idea.