Coppock curve
TrendIntermediate
The Coppock curve is a long-term momentum sum built for monthly charts. Edwin Coppock added an 11-month and a 14-month rate of change, then smoothed that sum with a weighted average. A cross up through zero from below is the classic long signal for a market that has already been falling. It is not an intraday oscillator.
Not investment advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Backtests and historical studies are not guarantees, and a rule that worked in one sample can fail in the next. Trading can lose money. Links are for education, not endorsements. Do your own research.
- Rules
- On monthly index data, compute the 11-month and 14-month rates of change, add them, and take a 10-period weighted moving average. The published buy is a turn up in the curve while it is below zero. There is no matching short rule in the original use. Many later versions exit when the curve turns down. Rebalance monthly, after the bar closes.
- Where AI fits
- AI can rebuild the curve from total-return index data and test the zero-cross against a simple monthly trend filter with the same holding period. It should keep the test on monthly bars. Running the formula on daily data and calling it Coppock changes the strategy.
- Markets
- Broad equity indexes. It was designed for major averages, not single stocks.
- Timeframes
- Monthly.
- Risks
- Signals are rare, so one or two decades can contain only a handful of buys. A curve that turns up early in a bear market still loses money until the index follows. Daily or weekly variants are a different, unproven system wearing the same name.